Friday, January 30, 2009
Derivatives
1. Forwards - a contract that requires for a person to either buy or sell a underlying asset. Requires no initial investment. Everything (expiration date and forward price) is agreed upon today and money nor commodity will exchange hands until the expiration date.
2. Options - there are two types: calls and puts. Both are contracts that give the RIGHT to buy or sell an underlying asset. This is different from a forward because you are not required to go through with the transaction; however, you must may a premium for this additional benefit.
3. Futures- forwards that are exchanged through an exchange market. (For example, Chicago Board of Trade or the New York Mercantile Exchange).
There are many reasons why people and firms deal with derivatives; however, most of them fall into two categories: speculation and hedging. Hedging is the use of derivatives to mitigate risks on a commodity (or any underlying asset) that a firm owns or plans to own in the future. On the other end, speculation is the process of using derivatives with no intention on owning the asset, but to gain high profits. For those who use these contracts to hedge, there are multiple benefits. A top one would be for firms that want to protect themselves from the risk of declining prices. A purchase of a forward contract, a put, or the selling of a call would allow them to benefit from falling prices. In reverse, if firms wants to hedge against increasing prices, they could take the opposing side of the aforementioned contracts. Combinations of these contracts can also be formed. Some will allow infinite amounts of profits, some infinite amounts of loss, and others with a limiting amount on both loss and profits, but a great protection area. Examples of these are collars (purchase of a put and selling of a call), spreads (purchase and selling of calls or puts), and straddles (purchase of a put and call).
Just like any financial strategy, there are those who oppose the use of derivatives. These following criticisms are some reasons people do not engage in derivative usage.
1. Possible large losses - if not used correctly (or the wrong derivatives are used), some derivatives can cause companies a great loss. In fact, losses do not only have to be in terms of when companies actually lose money, but can also be when companies have lost the opportunity to gain money. (This is what I was talking about with ARBC).
2. Counter-party risk - each type of derivative has their own degree of risk. And although the use of these contracts is to minimize risk for the company in general, some combinations of derivatives might not offset each other. (This goes back to being able to efficiently combining the correct strategies).
3. Unsuitably high risk for small/inexperienced investors - To tie this with the first point, large losses can occur when inexperienced investors make bad decisions while using derivatives. For those who don't have the expertise in this area, one small, yet wrong move can be fatal to a firm. Now, companies can get outside, more experienced help to guide them in the financial endeavors. However, this help will not come without a price tag. This is when firms must see if the cost of minimizing their risks through derivatives will truly add value to their firm.
Those were just a few of the hardships that can arise from using derivatives. Although they can happen, it is safe to say that the benefits of derivatives outweigh the criticisms. For both hedgers and speculators, it all depends on what you're looking for. In fact, some people spend their time trying to find arbitrage opportunities (when derivative contracts are unfairly priced, either too high or too low, which will give the opportunity to make money off the market. Usually done by speculators). In any case, these financial contracts have proven to be reliable and valuable to many firms in the past. And I'll make a good assumption and say, it will continue to do so in the future!
(Anand V., Professor of Finance at Georgia State University. Spring 2008. Reference slides can be provided if necessary.)
(Wikipedia.com. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_derivatives#Benefits)
(McDonald, Robert. "Introduction to Forwards and Options." Derivatives Market. 2006. Boston: Pearson Education, Inc.)
Project Cost Risk Analysis
What is a cost risk analysis? According to Mr. Hulett, "A formal risk analysis is putting on the table those problems and fear which heretofore were recognized but intentionally hidden." The core reason for doing this analysis was mentioned above, but we can go a little further. Conducting an analysis can help the project manager with a cost that could be higher than the EAC (estimate at completion) with a high probability. It also help firms find the most likely cost for the entire project, while stating the most risky components of the project. Because of that capability, it allows risk managers to take necessary risk minimizing actions for those particular components.
There are several steps in the project cost risk analysis. It all starts with splitting up the components of the project at hand. Then you would proceed as follows:
1. Collect data on the extreme "pessimistic and optimistic" ranges of cost per component. (This step is the most important, yet most difficult to do. It requires gathering information from all risk advisers).
2. Choose the appropriate probability distribution for each component.
3. Using the ranges and distributions determined (for his particular example, he assumed the Triangular distribution was correct), perform a Monte Carlo Simulation. (A procedure for pricing derivative claims by discounting expected payoffs, where the expected payoff is computed using simulated prices for the underlying asset).
4. From these results, you can discover the percentage contingency needed to accommodate a certain level of cost (non specific, whatever that specific risk manager wants to accommodate).
5. From the results, calculate the correlation between the different components. (This is also important because most of the components risks are correlated. Now you can see the level of that correlation).
6. From the results, you can identify the location of the highest risk. This helps managers prioritize the components and their risk management activities.
All of these steps and the results helps the firm determine whether this project is worth taking on. If so, it assists them on designating the amount of resources they will need for each component. According to Hulett and this information, it's safe to say that conducting a cost risk analysis is a procedure of risk management all in its own!
Hulett, David. "Project Cost Risk Analysis". http://www.projectrisk.com/. 1999. 28 January 2009 <http://www.projectrisk.com/Welcome/Cost_Risk_Paper/cost_risk_paper.html>.
McDonald, Robert. "Glossary". Derivatives Market. 2006. Boston: Pearson Education, Inc. P.914
Hedging: Additional Value or Not?
First, we can define hedging. According to Campbell Harvey (Professor of International Business at the Fuqua School of Business, Duke University), hedging is "a strategy designed to minimize exposure to such business risks as a sharp contraction in demand for one's inventory, while still allowing the business to profit from producing and maintaining that inventory." In other words, a way for companies to reduce risks on their commodity through the use of various derivatives (this term to be explained in another posting). Well, some believe that hedging is a fancy operation of speculation. This isn't necessarily correct. Some financial strategies that firms implement can be hedging with a speculative component; however, the key difference lies with the ownership of the underlying asset. Hedging is when firms use derivatives to minimize risk of an asset that they own, while speculation is using these derivatives on assets you do own or plan to obtain. You are using these strategies for pure profit making.
Does hedging truly add value? For companies that use correct strategies for their firms, yes!
"Hedging can be optimal for a firm when an extra dollar of income received in times of high profits is worth less than an extra dollar of income received in times of low profits." However, if firms implement the wrong derivatives for hedging strategies, the benefits might not beat the consequences. For example, American Barrick is a gold mining company. During a time that gold prices were decreasing, the firm wanted to be protected against the risk of profit loss. To do this, they shorted some forwards contracts. (Forwards will be explained in great detail in the "Derivatives" posting). In summary, they entered into a contract that allow them to agree upon a price to sell their gold in the future. This allowed them to be able to sell gold at the agreed upon price, even if prices fell. However, when the price of gold began to rise gain, American Barrick lost out on the opportunity to gain more profits. Of course, after seeing this consequence, the firm reevaluated their strategy and implemented new plans, ranging from collars to spot deferred contracts. In general, for a producer to make great hedge moves, they could:
1. sell a forward (pros-lock in price just in
case
of price decline, cons-miss out on profits if price increased)
2. sell a call (pros-reduces loss through
premiums
collected, cons-places a cap on profits)
3. purchase a put (pros-provides a floor for
losses and allows firm to gain
profits from price increase, cons-have to pay
premiums)
All of these are potential ways of hedging for the producer of the commodity. Now, we'll explain some key reasons one should hedge.
1. Taxes - there are certain rules and regulations regarding taxes that companies must abide by as well as apply to their profits. However, the use of derivatives can alter some of those outcomes. For various areas of the tax code, derivatives can 1) equate present values of the effective rates applied to losses and profits, 2) defer taxation of capital gains income, 3) shift income from one country to another, and 4) convert one form of income to another.
2. Bankruptcy and distress costs - A large financial loss to a firm can be burdensome to the company and its potential to operate. With that in mind, chances of bankruptcy increase as well as the costs associated with it. Hedging can allow the firm to reduce the probability of going bankrupt and the costs of doing so.
3. Costly external financing - Related to the note above, when a company suffers a financial loss, it still hurts the firm even if they do not go bankrupt. The loss still has to be taken care of, whether through reserves or at the expense of investors. By having to use money to cover the loss, firms miss out on the opportunity of great investments. Hedging can protect those reserves while reducing the probability of having to raise funds from outside the firm.
4. Increase debt capacity - It was once said that you need to borrow money the most, that's the time that lenders won't give it to you. For firms, it's the same thing. If there is a higher chance of bankruptcy, lenders are not as lenient on lending the firm money. The use of hedging strategies can help firms reduce the risk of their cash flows, thereby making them seem less likely to go bankrupt, and capable of receiving loans.
5. Managerial risk aversion - Some companies are ran by managers who's compensation is closely tied to the riskiness of the firm. To protect their own assets, managers will operate in a way that makes the financial well being of the company more certain. This is done through hedging.
Now, hedging does not only come with benefits. There are some reasons why companies choose not to hedge. I mean, there had to be, otherwise every firm would be using derivatives.
1. Having to pay transaction costs (the cost of dealing with derivatives), such as commissions and the bid-ask spread.
2. Firms must be able to assess costs and benefits of their chosen strategies, which could require outside and expensive expertise.
3. Firms must monitor transactions and have managerial controls in place to prevent unauthorized training.
4. Although hedging comes with some tax advantages, firms still have to be prepared for other tax and accounting consequences of their transactions.
All in all, hedging can be seen as a safeguard. Although no particular strategy is perfect, the use of hedging can create value for firms, pending they use the correct derivatives. If hedging is not necessary or will be more costly to do so, than that firm should refrain from it. However, if it can be seen that a firm can gain more profits and limit their loss by implementing such strategies, then hedging is the way to go!
Sources:
1. Harvey, Campbell. "Futures". Duke.edu. 16 November 1995. 29 January 2009 <http://www.duke.edu/~charvey/Classes/ba350/futures/futures.htm>. By way of Wikipedia. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedge_(finance)>.
2. McDonald, Robert. "Introduction to Risk Management." Derivatives Market. 2006. Boston: Pearson Education Inc. p.91-120.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Companies Failing in ERM
They are:
1. Risk culture
2. Risk management processes
3. Technology.
To attack the first, companies are not being balanced in their risk culture. During a survey that KMPG conducted in 2008, they found that 58% of the companies they surveyed did not have a clue on how risk exposures should be assessed and 33% of the companies reported that they did not have a risk management training or teaching. This is a disadvantage because without proper knowledge (training) of how to first, minimize or avoid some risks in our daily work routines, and second, be able to properly handle activities with an exposure to risk, companies are setting themselves up for a failure. It's important for every member, management and lower level workers, to know the risk tolerance of that particular company. This will in turn help them develop risk management techniques to coincide with that level of tolerance they have.
For the second area, risk processes, the survey discovered that most companies are not doing a sufficient job of creating an accurate process to assess their risks. In fact, 33% said they do not even have a risk management process in effect, 13% said they have a risk process, and only 14% of companies have a governance (i.e. risk management committee). However, Farrell has stated that companies should be doing more. Committees and departments focused on this area is necessary for companies to stay in line with management and their risk tolerance. It's all a part of the never ending circle and connection between the top and bottom.
Lastly, companies are lacking in the area of technology. Only 25% of the surveyed companies have applied technology to their ERM area. Of course, this is a hindrance. In our society today, technology drives and aids essential activities. To better assess a company's risk, various systems aided with technology is necessary.
Overall, there is much that can be done to fix this problem. KMPG has listed a few key starting points.
"1. Get strategic: Align ERM to the company's strategic objectives to drive business value, taking into account the needs of all constituencies.
2. Rationalize and simplify: Establish a single-view of risk, with a common risk language (e.g., risk context and categories, evaluation factors [e.g., likelihood, consequence], treatment options and monitoring/internal auditing allocation) to be leveraged across the organization.
3. Consider "three lines of defense": Build upon a thorough "vertical" risk management structure with independence and clear accountability.
4. Formalize and standardize (with practicality): Create a sustainable risk management process (e.g., risk assessment, risk management and risk reporting).
5. Influence behavior through building competencies: Embed risk management competency in the business and operating philosophy.
6. Get proactive: Continuously improve the risk management and monitoring process to anticipate evolving market conditions and business objectives (e.g. risk quantification, risk appetite)."
It's not a process that will done overnight, but with much work and determination, it can and will be done. ERM will be done and done efficiently.
(The post above is a paraphrase of information found in the following source. All statistics are accurate according to the website. ALL information was provided by the source as well.
KMPG LLP. "Many Enterprise Risk Management Programs Lack Fundamentals, According to KPMG's Survey of Internal Auditors and Boards". The Earth Times. 20 January 2009. 23 January 2009 <http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/many-enterprise-risk-management-programs,685355.shtml>.)
Monday, January 19, 2009
CAPM
Aim to maximize economic utility.
Are rational risk-averse.
Are price takers, i.e., they cannot influence prices.
Can lend and borrow unlimited under the risk free rate of interest.
Trade without transaction or taxation costs.
Deal with securities that are all highly divisible into small parcels.
Assume all information is at the same time available to all investors. " (By way of Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_Asset_Pricing_Model#Assumptions_of_CAPM)
The CAPM is also used to recognize the efficient frontier, portfolios consisting of two risky assets that fall on the upward sloping portion of the investment opportunity set (
The set of all attainable combinations of risk and return offered by portfolios formed using the available assets in differing proportions.) Along with other financial applications, an analyst can create the optimal portfolio that includes risky assets and non-risky assets that will give the investor an expected return according to his/her risk tolerance. (Anand V., Professor of Finance at Georgia State University. Spring 2008. Reference slides can be provided if necessary.)
Enterprise Risk Management
In all of that, it's safe to say that ERM is critical aspect to all companies. Those who are slacking in this area or slow to even step up to the plate to begin this process are in a spot to be left behind and exposed to many risks. This subject is so important that even the SOA (Society of Actuaries) have created a new credential for this study. (The new title is CERA, Chartered Enterprise Risk Analyst. For those who want to know the requirements of this credential, visit http://www.soa.org/education/exam-req/edu-cera-req.aspx). Overall, ERM is proving to be an arena of study that will be quite beneficial to all companies.
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